As on June 13, there has been a difference due to the enervating of its circulation pattern in the country ahead of southwest monsoon. There will be a change in weather in some states of India they are Assam, Mumbai, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, West Bengal and some parts of Jharkhand, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and South Gujarat till June 25, India Meteorological Department Recent weather conditions and outlook But, dry magic is already a matter of concern.
According to the IMD’s Hydromet Division, between June 1 and June 22, there have been many meteorological sub-divisions in the north-west, northeast and eastern India (decreasing from 59% to 20%) and decreased rainfall (Minus 99% to 60%).
For example, in eastern Uttar Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan and West Rajasthan, 63%, minus 43%, minus 52% and zero to 54% respectively. Bihar, Jharkhand and Odisha also received 38%, minus 49% and minus 31%.
Overall, till June 22, only 10 states and Union Territories have reported normal rainfall (minimum 19% to 19%) in the country. Eleven have reported less rainfall and are in the category of three major shortages. In the meantime, there were additional states (20% to 59%) in eight states and union territories and three in large rainfall (60% or more) respectively.
While the southwest monsoon is now expected to increase momentum and finally the whole country is covered with some delays, an IMD study, which means the meteorological sub-divisions and long-term rainfall trend in India’s districts, in July 2017 in Muuseam. Published, one quarterly research magazine, Meteorological Department has found that annual rainfall in the country is showing a growing trend in 10% of the districts, Bki significant reduction in 13% of districts.
Long-term trend analysis
On the basis of rainfall analysis, researchers found that between 1961 and 2013, 64 districts (10.1%) show a growing trend of annual rainfall, whereas 85 districts (13.4%) show a declining trend. Some districts of Uttar Pradesh (UP) faced declining annual rainfall these districts are Agra, Aligarh, Etawah, Firozabad, Gorakhpur, Kanpur, Mathura, Unnao etc.
Concurrently, in Odisha, maximum of 12 districts are showing growing trend like Cuttack, Kalahandi, Koraput, Mayurbhanj, Puri etc. In Uttar Pradesh, the annual rainfall has decreased in the area of 97,663.9 sq km, whereas 68,846.9 in the Kms area in Odisha is increasing trend.
Rain analyst says that, “the sub-division of West UP, Eastern Uttar Pradesh and Arunachal Pradesh are showing a fairly negative trend in the rain while sub-division of Odisha, coastal AP (Andhra Pradesh) and Konkan and Goa Showing positively 95% (level of confidence) positive trend “, reads the 2017 study.
In addition to the annual rainfall trend, IMD scientists have also studied the monsoon rains between 1961 and 2013. And, analysis shows: “There is considerable negative tendency in monsoon rain in western UP and eastern Uttar Pradesh, while Jammu and Kashmir, Odisha, SI (south-interior) Karnataka and sub-sub-division of Konkan and Goa monsoon, The divisions are showing a very positive trend in the rain of 95% (level of confidence). Apart from this, no district is showing growing trend in the two periods in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi and Puducherry. The IMD study also warns of “high variability in rainfall in recent decades”.
Concerns and impacts
The changing rainfall pattern in India is a major concern because the country’s water and food security are at risk. According to the document of 2017 of NITI Aayog of Think Tank, Government of India, Rainfied Agriculture Revival in India, India is already insisting on water. Nearly 52% of the crop areas remain without irrigation and in some areas water is emphasized chronically.
In the irrigated area, the share of the rivers has decreased from 38.8% to 23.6%, whereas in the groundwater sources, an increase of 62.4% has increased from 28.7% between 1950-51 and 2012-13. Due to lack of irrigation, a large number of farmers were dependent on monsoon rain for agricultural practice. For example, according to NITI Ayod Documents of the total pulses, oilseeds and cotton produced in the country, 80% of pulses, 73% oilseed, and 68% cotton comes from rain-fed agriculture.
Demands for cereals, pulses, edible oils, vegetables, and fruits is increasing at the rate of 1.3%, 3%, 3.5%, 3.3% and 5% yearly. Change in the pattern of rainfall can put a spanner in India’s food security.
Authors of India Meteorological Department warned, ” Southwestern will have significant impact on climate change, agricultural, water resources system and the overall economy of the country during monsoon.” Such climate change means an increase in extreme weather events, droughts and floods too.
The Case of Northeast India, who is facing a devastating flood. By June 22, there is a reduction of 60% (classified as major reduction) in Manipur but is facing the rage of floods. Due to less rainfall in Assam, 14 people lost their lives in the flash flood and rain-fed landslide While floods have affected more than half a million people in the state.