It is estimated that in order to predict the space industry to grow up to trillion dollars by 2040, it will require the development of new markets, even with the slight annual growth rate necessary to achieve that goal.
A panel session on June 26 in NewSpace 2018 conference of the Space Frontier Foundation noted that investment banks had predicted several reports last year that the global space economy is currently valued at approximately $ 350 billion, in the 2040s a trillion dollars Or may be more than that.
A report by Goldman Sachs estimated that the industry would reach $ 1 trillion in the 2040s, which was controlled by Delight’s consultant Jeff Matthews on the panel discussion. A separate study by Morgan Stanley estimated the ‘most likely outcome’ of the $ 1.1 trillion space economy in the 2040s. The third study of Bank of America Merrill Lynch was most optimistic because the market was growing at a time of $ 2.7 trillion dollars.
Those numbers, while seemingly, reflect only the nominal annual growth rate. Matthews said, “Depending on the source you use, the space economy is currently between 330 to 350 billion dollars, and it is increasing at the rate of about six to eight percent per annum for the last decade at that level”. He mentioned that Morgan Stanley’s study had estimated an annual growth rate of seven percent with an increase in the recent past.
However, the space industry is growing at a recent slow clip. A study released June 13 by the Satellite industry association designed by Bryce Space & Technology found that the global space economy in 2017 was $348 billion, an increase of only one percent from 2016.u000aAccording to the same report the satellite industry, which is the largest share of the total space economy, grew three percent to 26 9 billion in 2017. This is similar to the reported growth rate in 2015 and 2016 but is considerably lower than the growth seen in the last decade, which recently included double-digit growth as of 2013.
Even assuming high growth rates, other Panelists believed that to achieve the space economy of up to 2040 trillion dollars would require fundamental changes in the industry. An assistant professor at the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business, Greg Autry, said, “When you see those existing numbers, it’s almost entirely two things: Government and communications. I don’t know that any of them is constantly scalable according to projections suggestions.”
Autry argued that the fundamental change in the forces running the economy needs to achieve that trillion-dollar target. He said, “I do not know if there is no information point then you get a trillion dollar market”.
He said that an example of such an investigation is the rise of commercial human spaceflight with commercial space stations. “I think it will be the stunning driver. I have a lot of confidence in companies like Axiom [space] and Bigelow [Aerospace] to really fill those space stations.”
Other things come from the ‘ downstream ‘ applications rather than the future growth space system. Managing partner at Ubiquity Ventures, Sunil Nagaraj asked, “Something like 1,200 satellites is something like. Does it triplicate to trillion dollars? I’m a little bit skeptical about that.”
Nagaraj said he saw more opportunities for development from those companies which used to include data and other services in their own applications from space systems. “To understand more easily, what is actually the application of Earth from under the space, in my opinion, vs. pushing more satellites?”
According to Autry, it was warned about caution that in order to increase the overall space economy of the markets, which could emerge, mentioning their experience in the initial computer industry, where the Games played a lot more than the initial expectations.
He said “I think we haven’t seen what’s on the app Nuspace side yet. I believe that it is there but I think the most important thing is that we do not make too much effort to define the roadmap. Some are going to be really unexpected rounds, and it will be interesting to see what they have.”